The End of History Revisited: Arab Revolutions in the 21st Century

by Mihir Garud

It took just 18 days for one of the most entrenched leaders in the Middle East, Hosni Mubarak, to be forced out of power.  Despotic leaders from around the region are feeling the pressure that revolutions may be inevitable.  Leaders in Libya, Tunisia, Syria, Bahrain, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are struggling to prevent their countries from losing their position in an increasingly complicated world.  Transition into a democratic style of government in the Arab region could trigger draconian geopolitical shifts in world order.  Promotion of US and EU styles of democracy threatens the end of oppressive monarchies in the Middle East.  In his book The End of History and the Last Man, Francis Fukuyama argues that the advent of Western liberal democracy can be seen as the endpoint of mankind’s ideological evolution and in turn the final form of human government.  Revisiting Fukuyama’s argument, it is compelling to see how the concept of “the end of history” would apply to the current Arab revolutions.  While Fukuyama’s thesis successfully captured a specific moment, the end of the Cold War and the victory of liberal democracy and capitalism over communism, his claims oversimplify a more intricate reality.  Although the Arab world will change drastically after the current unrest, the final outcome remains uncertain.  Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain will likely transition into democracies in the future, but recent developments in Libya show that it is still too soon to assume that the Arab world has reached its End of History.  The unequivocal fact still remains that the new Middle East will be more uncertain than the old.

It is fallacious to argue that Islam is inherently different and represents a severe obstacle for societies to modernize politically and economically.  Fukuyama’s contention is that Islamic rejection of modernity is due to a loss of identities by people caught in between traditional and modern societies, not from Islam itself.  Muslim culture and society possess the ability to create and sustain a liberal democracy.  Turkey, Malaysia, Mali, Senegal, and Indonesia (since 1997) are all cases of successful models of development.  The Arab people, especially the youth, see the benefits of a democratic government as well as the peaceful coexistence between Islam and democratic politics in most cases. Despite this recognition, history has shown that democracy does not readily or easily travel from the West to the rest of the world.  Western governments must show that they possess ample knowledge about the history and culture of the local regions without making it seem as if they are purely in the business of exporting democracy.  In a new and more democratic Middle East, America’s own policies will come under greater examination and criticism, while the space available for the US to pursue its agenda is likely to contract. These will be key issues for US policy to address.

It remains unclear what precisely the motive behind the uprising of the Arab states was.  The persistence of undemocratic states in Africa, the failure of Russia to support democracy, and the escalation of global Jihad are just a few bleak reminders of the challenges democracy faces.   Although the idea that current uprisings in the Middle East are driving the Arab world towards its own End of History is resonating with some people, it still remains to be seen what happens in Libya in the long term.  If Western-style democracy is indeed the final form of human government, it is still premature to argue that the Arab world is heading towards The End of History.